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Robots, Energy, and the Birth Rate Crisis: How Tech and Demographics Are Reshaping Our Future

Episode 42 · 24 September 2025 · 53 min

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Robots, Energy and the Birth Rate Crisis: How Tech and Demographics Are Reshaping the Future

The birth rate crisis, humanoid robots and the energy needed to run them: Randy Lorensen and Dr. John Oberg tackle three big forces reshaping the future in their second current-events episode.

They start with Elon Musk's prediction of 10 to 30 billion humanoid robots, and whether you'd actually put one in your home. That leads to the real choke point, electricity: Silicon Valley's turn to nuclear, thorium, solar and home battery backup, and how U.S. energy production compares with China's.

In the middle, they look at Tom Brady's dual role as a Raiders owner and a broadcaster, and what it teaches about handling conflicts of interest: disclose and be transparent.

Then they turn to declining birth rates around the world, what a shrinking tax base means alongside $37 trillion in debt, and what people can do about it. They close on focusing on what you can control, starting with gratitude.

Humanoid Robots, Thorium Reactors and the Declining Birth Rate

What you'll discover:

  • Musk's 10–30 billion humanoid robots, and whether robots will lower the cost of living
  • Why electricity is AI's real choke point, from nuclear and thorium to home solar
  • How U.S. energy production compares with China's
  • Tom Brady, the Raiders, and how to handle a conflict of interest
  • The birth rate crisis and a shrinking tax base, country by country
  • Focusing on what you can control, starting with gratitude

Timestamps

  • [00:00] Welcome: Randy and John's second current-events episode
  • [01:02] Elon Musk's prediction of 10 to 30 billion humanoid robots
  • [02:40] Would you put a humanoid robot in your home?
  • [05:33] Early adopters, laggards and the diffusion of innovation
  • [06:13] Brett Adcock, Figure, and fixing the process before you automate
  • [09:00] Will robots lower the cost of living?
  • [12:13] The real choke point: electricity
  • [13:34] Silicon Valley's turn to nuclear power
  • [14:25] Nuclear safety, solar, and Randy's battery backup
  • [15:34] Energy production: the U.S. vs. China
  • [18:26] Thorium, and who holds the patents
  • [20:19] What energy means for your own household
  • [21:52] Energy, poverty and access to clean water
  • [24:04] A rough transition, or the road to abundance?
  • [25:08] Quantum computing, and chips in everything
  • [26:52] Solar options for apartment and condo dwellers
  • [27:14] Tom Brady, the Raiders, and an owner in the broadcast booth
  • [33:21] Navigating conflicts of interest: disclose and be transparent
  • [39:10] Declining birth rates around the world
  • [41:54] $37 trillion in debt and a shrinking tax base
  • [44:33] Birth rates country by country
  • [48:00] What should people do about it?
  • [50:43] Exciting times, and focusing on what you can control
  • [53:13] Wrap-up: it starts with gratitude

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About the hosts

This is a hosts-only episode with Randy Lorensen and Dr. John Oberg (Anthony Marino isn't on this one). Host bios are on the host pages linked below.

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Meet the hosts: Randy Lorensen · Dr. John Oberg · Anthony Marino

Transcript

A full transcript is below. It was generated automatically from the episode audio, so expect some spelling errors in names and terms.

[00:06] welcome back to Tales of Abundance. Why settle for less? As always, I'm here with John Oberg. How we doing today, — I'm good, man. — Good. Well, last week we started something new. We talked a little bit about current events and tying them into abundance and the five Fs and what's going on in the world. It's early, but we've had really good feedback from that. And so, we're going to continue that today. And in fact, the entire episode today is just going to be about some of the things that are going on. And it may not be immediately obvious how they tie into the 5Fs and where they're going. But I we'll we'll try and put that bow on it by the time we're done. And uh I'm I'm excited about this, John. I think this is one of those things that I think hopefully if people listen to this, their IQ goes up a point or two, including mine and yours. So I could use — Yeah, look, there's some topics here that I, you know, for me it's like I want to be curious about, you know, what the future holds especially and so I'm I'm interested to interested to get into it for sure. — Okay. Well, let's jump into the the first topic. I'm going to give a whole bunch of points and it may not be obvious how they all tie together because we'll we'll go through these one by one, but I think these all tie together. It's going to be Elon Musk. Um and in particular he made a comment recently that 80% of Tesla's revenue is going to come from humanoid robots or robotics which is in its own and he has predicted 10 to 30 million or billion sorry 10 to 30 billion humanoid robots on the planet I think by 2030 or 2035 I forget the time frame but Brett Adcock at figure uh has a similar prediction And there's hundreds of companies, you know, there's a lot of people think this will be the biggest thing in the world, the biggest industry in the world. Well, that's a production issue. That's what they're all trying to solve right now is how do you produce that? But what we're going to talk about today or tie into is it's an an energy issue. And where is all that electricity going to come from? that's going to we're already using more electricity but all of a sudden robots and everybody has probably heard or if you haven't AI is a really big thing and uh it uses a ton of electricity so uh you know electricity production and and the chips and then Elon's pay package he just has a proposed pay package of a trillion dollars if they hit certain benchmarks at Tesla.

[02:40] let's jump in there, John. Let's You and I, we've talked about robotics. We've even debated this. I think we have different opinions on this a little bit. Um, I think that in the I think there's a really good chance in the next couple of years that we'll have robots in the home. I think you're a little less bullish than I am and maybe a lot less. — I don't know why you keep saying I I already know someone who's got one in their home. So, I don't know why like you keep say like I think you just naturally think I'm I'm I'm less uh enthusiastic or agreeable, but I know someone who's actually testing one of Amazon's uh one of Amazon's robots in their home. I think it's cool. Like it's a dog that like carries things back and forth in their home for them. — I don't I don't I don't know if I have strong opinions about it, but it's cool. — Felt six months ago. You felt very different at the round table. You and one of our mutual friends were — Well, I felt I think I felt differently about how fast it would happen for jobs like landscaping and for the trades. that's different than but I do think you know there's going to be lot there's a huge amount of humanoid robotic kind of opportunities and I had lots of questions about definitions like if you take um a human off of a manufacturing line in a automotive plant 30 years ago and you put a robot in place of that that's not a humanoid robot but it's a robot that replaces them does that count as one of these 30 billion or not like that's an interesting question that I have so — I think both what Brett Adcock and Elon Musk are talking about are not those robots. I'm pretty sure because I've heard both of them in interviews have talked about hum specifically humanoid — Yeah. There's so many different use cases, right? I think every time you turn around, you can find humanoid robots that could do something a human could do. I'm betting there's a lot of things you can imagine a humanoid robot doing things that humans don't do. Also, — have you would you put one in your home?

[04:21] — Oh, yeah, for sure. I don't know what I would use it for right now. Um, but uh I mean I I'm not opposed to humanoid robots in any way, shape, or form. I'm assuming you're not even — Would you like be willing to be one of the first people to test it? — I think within some parameters, right? You know, I work from home and I have some like HIPPA restrictions in the house. So, as long as I wasn't violating like HIPPA or anything like that, I'd have no problem with that. Um, but yeah, I mean, I I look, we we we're pretty early adopters of lots of things. We have a lot of home automation already. Um, and so I just don't like generally speaking if I can do things that make so that I can have more time that is discretionary. I'm a fan of that. — I Me too. I I would gladly be an early adopter. I But I've talked to a lot of people that wouldn't, right? Like there's a lot of people that just aren't comfortable with that. But again, I'm, you know, I I drive everywhere by pushing a button and just sitting in my car. I'm perfectly comfortable with my life being in the hands of of really a robot or you know it's a robot AI car that's driving me places. So for me having one in my home is a lot lower risk than having it drive me around the — Yeah. Yeah, I think that goes back to like Ever Rogers work diffusion of, you know, he talks about uh diffusion of innovation was he was the big guy at Stanford and New Mexico that talked about like there's the innovators in the world, then there's the early adopters and there's a big gap, right? And then you have like the the early majority, late majority and lagards. And so I think you and I are probably in that innovator early adopter part of the world. Um and so and that's and and I don't think there's I have no value judgment about where somebody is and I think that different products people fall into different places. in that in that kind of uh chart. But I think it's cool.

[06:09] — Yeah. And you know, the real question becomes production, right? Like Elon Musk has proven to be an expert at being able to produce and and get production up. Brett Adcock seems like he's pretty darn good at it, too. I believe, wasn't he with a um one of the flying car companies? I think I think he made some money, exited from a flying car company and then put a bunch of his own money into creating figure like and it just seems to be a passion project to him. I I think he self-funded for two three 400 million at the beginning if I'm not — Was it Archer Aviation was I think he maybe he was associated with. So, — yep. I think he was the founder and CEO of that and exit. Yes. — Yeah. Yeah. Let's see how fast I can pull that up online. I had no idea what that was two minutes ago. So, — there you go. Great. you you are our our researcher, co-host and researcher allin one, multiple hats. — Well, well, you know, I think, you know, I think it's worth saying though that like I I just finished the book that Isaxson did on Elon Musk and one of the stories in the book was Elon was automating a lot of things in one of his factories and he automated what turned out to be a bad process, his words, not mine. And he ended up cutting a hole in the factory wall, throwing all the robots out and having humans go back to doing it because it was better. And the lesson for him was to um fix the process first before automating it with robots as as it were. And and my guess and I'm guessing here is that he would say that robots will be able to figure out some of that in the future when you have different types of robots. And so I'm I'm pretty hopeful that you know we're going to see um some things that make our lives better. But but I think you we got to remember too that like our our world is a much more complicated world than it was you know 60 70 years ago.

[07:53] the number of bills that we pay per month compared to what our grandparents paid per month. Like the number of bills they had to take care of was I I don't remember the exact numbers. It was like less than 10 or something like that. And we're taking care of like 30 or 40 or whatever it is. And um I don't know those are the exact right numbers, but directionally it's just a much more complicated life we have. And so and sometimes we automate our way away from things like now we have software packages that go in and figure out all the subscriptions you forgot about because you've subscribed to so many things and just it's a different world. — Yeah. And and there's there's challenges, right? I by the way I believe all of this is leading us to abundance, right? Like these robots and all of these things is going to lead to a lower cost of living. I think right now cost of living is certainly going up and getting worse. But I think that eventually it's going to lead to a lower cost of living, more abundance, but the challenge is I I got to believe one of the first things whether it's Figure or Tesla is working on is robots that can make other robots and replacing — And that's a challenge all in its own.

[09:00] That may not be a huge topic for today. That might be a whole another topic, but I think that's coming. Yeah, let's let's let's dig into that for a half a second about perspective. You said you hope it's going to lower the cost of living. Let me just offer a different perspective and see if we can just beat on that for a minute because I would say that it's it's widely talked about that like most people on the planet today or or at least a lot of people on the planet today live better than most emperors over the history of time. sanit, you know, sanitary living conditions for not the whole world, but for a lot of the first world and with like indoor plumbing and, you know, the middle class lives better than most, you know, of the richest people in all of — right? Like hasn't it already lowered the cost of living in the sense that we've raised the standard of living so much that yeah it's true that we continue to raise the standard of living but if you hold the standard of living equal right to like you know 300 years ago 200 years ago we've already lowered the cost so much that we've democratized you know most things which is and and we'll continue to do so and so I don't say that as meaning that like we should stop now because I don't think we should stop now but I do mean that in the sense that I have great gratitude for how far society has come. And I think that, you know, I think if we take a step back and can be grateful for that, it leads us to a different starting place in the conversation going forward.

[10:22] — Well, yes. And I think that if we can lower it even more, that much better, right? And I don't want to turn this into an economics thing, but my mind automatically goes to before the Federal Reserve was created, if you go from 1813 to 1913, the cost of living in America got cut in half. And wages grew, wages grew significantly. That was really the first time the world had seen a middle class is, you know, and yes, there were the robber barons or so-called who got super rich. But a whole other group of people went from poverty to middle class and the cost of whether it was housing, food, whatever got cut in half because of technology. Well, technology has grown far more since 1913 to today. and robots and all this stuff is going to make it grow even faster. If the money wasn't broken, we could have both. We could have the standard of living rise and and again, I don't want to turn this into a complete economics thing, but you know, my brain that takes me to the Fed.

[11:25] — I get it. You can't you can't you can't get away from that. I get it. I get but I but to your point though look look at the things like in terms of you know cost of living like if if there are people in the middle class who consider you know flying on vacation a part of their budget like in 1910 that wasn't a thing right and so so so we've really we've got to look at it in the sense that we've increased the standard of living you know pretty significantly in a good way and so I don't know I for me it's just a jumping off place in terms of gratitude to kind of say, okay, like I'm I'm really grateful for where we're headed and um I I I do think, you know, we want to be mindful about what the future holds and we've got to be careful about like hidden interests. Um but I think that's been the case for most of history. Probably — it has. So I think the choke point and what listeners need to be mindful of is it's not just production and certainly it's computer chips which we talked a little bit about last week and will again in the future but the big thing is electricity and electricity usage is going up. Well if we have 10 to 30 billion humanoid robots how much electricity are they going to use?

[12:42] Right? And we're just have more computers, more chips, more everything. AI data centers are using electricity at an alarming rate, you know, and so I have a — Is it alarming to people? I You know more about this than I do, but when you say alarming, you mean like more like there's more energy requirements that can outstrip the system so that people's air conditioners might get turned off on hot days and lead to really tragic events? Yeah, I would expect if we don't increase energy production, AI companies are going to bid more and they're going to use they're using more and more. And it's I'll tell you something, it's really telling. If you go back a few years ago, if you remember, Silicon Valley was all green energy and they were, you know, the the carbon credits and all this stuff and they were against nuclear, they were against everything, right? Well, if you notice, you don't hear any of that from Silicon Valley anymore. None. In fact, Microsoft just bought a nuclear power plant or created I think they're reopening three Mile Island if I'm not mistaken. Um Elon Musk bought a power plant in like Germany that he's disassembling, bringing back and putting back together because of all the regulation. Um Amazon is talking about creating a nuclear power plant.

[14:04] like they've gone the opposite way. Like because of AI and because of the need for energy, these companies are needing way way way more electricity than they've ever known. And you don't even hear them talking about fossil fuels the way they did, right? Like — we still need more solar, more wind. — You know, nuclear by all accounts, and I've talked to some people, nuclear physicists and other things, is the safest energy there is. I mean, I one of my favorite quotes is more people die falling off windmills every year than have died in all of the nuclear accidents in history. Not to mention the billions of birds that they kill. So, I'm not saying we should get rid of wind and I put solar on my house. I mean, I — You know, in the last Yeah. Well, you missed one, too, which is like um battery, right? You and I have talked about batteries and you know battery technology seems and again not my area of expertise but I do hear rumblings that we're like we're really close to some breakthroughs in battery technology that could really help us with things like solar and wind. Right.

[15:13] — Yeah. Absolutely right. That's that's my problem. My house produces more electricity than I use every day. But — my bad I don't have enough battery power. I've only got one power wall and I really need two, maybe three so that it lasts me through the night or if I do have a blackout or a brown out that it would stay fully charged, right? And so, — um, well, here just let me share my screen real quick and, uh, this this chart I I looked up multiple charts before this call. They all show slightly different numbers, but if you notice worldwide in 2025, how much energy is going to be needed, this predicts by 2035, it's going to be, you know, over double, like two and a half times. Uh if we look at China, the US again, we're talking about double the energy production. And if we take that to by countries, look at this. I think this is really telling. If we look at the US here, for those of you not seeing it, the US energy went up from 1985 to about 2000. Since 2000, it's a it's up and down, but it's a pretty flat line with it actually going slightly down despite the fact that our consumption is up. So, I know especially some places like California and I think the Northeast had a big brown out a few years ago, this is why we're using more electricity, but we're not producing more. The E, look at the EU. Same thing.

[16:49] The EU is actually going down. Um, Russia is up a little, Japan's been down, but look at India here. India has gone up pretty dramatically and even more dramatically. so much. I have to scroll up if you're not viewing. Look at China was almost at the bottom with India in 1985 and was still, you know, it took them until 2005 to be half the energy production of the US. And now that line is almost straight up there two and a half times the US just 20 years later. — Yeah. Well, I want to give a quick shout out to my friend Ken Ogen, too, who's who's was the first one to talk to me about geothermal energy and some of the work we're doing to figure out geothermal, which could be another interesting I I I don't know how it would rival nuclear energy necessarily, but um the reality is that there there's a little bit of an arms race here for — Yeah, there there is. I mean, but I mean, what are the implications if we lose the AI war? I mean — yeah I don't that would have frightens me a little bit because I don't understand it — like like there's that is a real but India and China are really putting money into all forms I mean China is opening coal plants they're opening solar they're opening wind they're opening nuclear by the way you and I haven't talked about this but are you familiar with thorium — no the word — I hope I'm saying it right um I should have pulled up articles on this but the gist of it is the US created this and patented it like 30 plus years ago being able to take thorium to make nuclear energy. It's far more it it it works better than uranium and it's really there's tons of it, right?

[18:40] Like we recently found a thorium deposit in the west. I believe it ranges from like California to Nevada that can could power the US for tens of thousands of years and — looks like it's naturally occurring it looks like. — Yes. And far more efficient, safer than uranium. And the US has just not done anything with it. In fact, the patent expired. Well, last year China, you might while you're checking here, China opened two or three. You probably fact checked me to be exact, but they literally took our patent and opened They, by the way, have a deposit far bigger. I want to say theirs is good for 400,000 or 600,000 years. Like they just have insane amounts of this and they're producing thorium and we're not. — And so yeah, so the just for clarification, um, thorium naturally occurring, so can't be patented, but the patents that Randy is talking about were about processing it for manufacturing and purification that were taken. So — that's concerning — and they're using it and they're producing these generators and this is part of the reason they're frankly kicking our ass when it comes to energy production which I think we're talking about all these projections of where AI is going but the limiting factor is going to be electricity along you know we started with robots but this is I I think this is a real crisis in America and I think energy prices they've been going up they're going to continue going up unless we get our act together and start making energy. And I'm I don't — It's interesting.

[20:20] — Go ahead. — I was going to say it's an interesting question for people to think through like you know like I don't um I don't think about energy every day in the way that you're talking about. But it's like if if if I lived in a house, I'd want to I live in an apartment, but I lived in a house, I'd want to understand like what does this mean for solar energy? And um you know back in I think the you know late 40s maybe 50s 60s that people had victory gardens um to kind of make their own food. And so I wonder if we're going to have some type of like energy renaissance where people think about solar panels and other means of energy in that same in that same way. Um I think it's an interesting set of questions. I always think about like okay what does this mean for policy and I'm less educated there. What does this mean for my community? And I'd have to be a little more thoughtful about that. And then more importantly, what does it mean for me? And I think, you know, what do I do to help support my energy needs? I I happen to live on a hospital grid. So that um you know, I'm I'm considered on a what do they call those? A critical grid or something. So there's there's less risk for me being browned out because I live on a critical grid. But gosh, for people that aren't on critical grids that do rely on electricity for particularly for, you know, health reasons, you know, um this could be certainly meaningful. Nursing homes that aren't on a critical grid or — Well, stop just stop and think about — what would you do if you didn't have energy for even half the day or whatever. Like how would your life — You know?

[21:52] — I mean I mean it's a it's a big thing. thing. I mean, this is the number one indicator worldwide of extreme poverty is energy. Like, if you look at places that do not have access to energy, people are just poor. You know, Africa has 600 million people still without energy. And those villages, they're just there is no wealth. — Well, and we Yeah, we we talk about wealth. I mean, you're talking about financial wealth, and we've talked on the show about I' I've met people who have far less money that are very very happy. And so you can have lots of types of abundance, but what you're talking about is like helping people get out of conditions that are, you know, lower than we would hope for any human to kind of bring them up in the world, which is I think for me at least, I I feel like there's a responsibility I have to improve the world in in the ways that I've got a gift. And this is this is something we can think about for people, right? Like how do we how do we get energy to people? Um, — I mean it it's just looks want to getated if if clean water I mean it impacts so much stuff that we just take for granted.

[22:57] — That's I was just going to ask you about that. Like there's you know I I live in a world where people often do like mission trips and they donate money to things like clean water wells in Africa. Like do we think that maybe this clean energy um we start doing doing more projects for clean energy? I'm I'm guessing there's tons of clean energy projects um through volunteer organizations already, but I wonder if that becomes um more of the mainstream conversation the way clean water has um over the next couple of years. We should track that and talk about it with listeners as we take pay closer attention. Yeah, I mean it's it's definitely a you know it's a way we can spread abundance in the world is getting people access to energy, access to clean water and all of that is just all that's going to take more electricity, right? And and so it'll be very interesting, you know, as this grows. I tend to believe more in I guess the Star Trek future than I do most of the sci-fi movies you see. They they seem to me most of them are pretty And I just think that I have a little more faith in humanity than that. And I think that we're growing. And while I think we're in a rough transition time now, we've talked about the fourth turning and some other stuff. I just I I think we're coming to the to the good part of that, right? And after the hard times comes the good times. And I think it's abundance, but there is a road where the AI companies or whatever are taking all of that energy and and people are getting less than they get now, — I wonder if there's going to be a like there was a push and we've I think like with internal combustion engines, there's a thinking that we could have been a lot more um effective with those over time had more research gone into that. I wonder for the people who are creating chips today if there's a big push in having more energyefficient highcapacity computing power. I I have to imagine there would be u we you know I just talked to a guy a couple weeks ago who used to live in that world.

[24:59] Maybe we'll bring him on and see what what the current thinking is around energy utilization and how we're thinking about not just raw power but also um you know compute for less. That's one of the big promises of like quantum, right? — One of the problems with what — promises is one of the promises of quantum computing. — Yeah. I mean, you know, and AI super intelligence, you know, they talk about super intelligence, maybe it solves these problems, right? Like maybe when that happens, we can really capture the sun, right? I mean, it's something like the sun produces thousands of times more energy or the sun that hits the earth is thousands of times more than we need, but we're still capturing a very small percentage of it. And who knows what else super intelligence what other problems it can solve. Uh, but you know, computer chips, I'm I'm looking for how many computer chips there are in the world or like some kind of a chart. But, you know, it's Anyway, — I think the scientific term is a whole — Yeah. I mean, the number is growing, right? Everything has chips now.

[26:08] — Oh, yeah. Yeah. I was watching a TV show. It was a a medical drama and they were showing a prosthetic leg that had a computer chip in it. I no idea that prosthetics would have computer. I'm sure it makes tons of sense. I was just like, but but to your point, — the NFL's putting them in footballs this year. They're they don't have a I don't know if you watch this year, but if you watch there's no more chain gang. They're doing electronic measurements because the ball the ball has — chips in it for the first time. I mean, they're literally they're so cheap and small, but again, everything is — I wonder if they've put two, one at each tip and one in the middle to see which part actually made it furthest forward so they can place it correctly. I'm pretty sure there's multiple chips in there. Yeah. Based on how the balls stood up field. — So, so now this has got me thinking about like as a as an apartment dweller. What are the things that you know I live in a condo in a building like are there ways to get like solar panels on on the windows that like I know that exists. I don't know how effective they are, but now and and then can you do that in a building uh where you're one of many?

[27:10] And so I I've got I've got a couple action items I'm going to take from this. And then you brought up the NFL. One of the other topics we had today is the NFL. Do we want to pivot into that? — We can. Yeah, let's do that. — So, I was reading this weekend that uh you know, Tom Brady uh bought in as a minority owner to the to the Las Vegas Raiders. I I was in Los Angeles when they were the Los Angeles Raiders, — And I've been a lifelong Raiders fan. Uh woe as me. Like, you think it's tough being a Vikings fan? Try being a Raiders — And uh you have a minority. — I would I would argue it's been a much better ride. — Not in my lifetime. We have I guess we had one. Um — I got — two or three. — So what what about you know there's everyone's talking about the conflict of interest like Tom Brady's a an analyst so he's works as a broadcaster and he's an owner and for people that don't understand the life of a broadcaster like give us a quick background like because you don't just come on and call the game like working as a broadcaster is a full-time gig where you have a lot of preparation that goes into that broadcast on Sunday or Monday. So maybe you just start by telling us like what it is that Tom Brady does as an owner and as and for those of you who don't know Randy is a massive football fan has played football and flag football at a really high level competitive like with former NFL players. Um so Ry's got a a good eye into this part of the world. So maybe just give us a quick primer on like what does it mean to be an owner of of a team and what does it mean to be a broadcaster? Well, owners are completely Some owners are very handsoff, right?

[28:38] And they hire people to run the business and they have a general manager and ex, you know, those types of people, coaches that run the business, and they're hands off. There's other owners like Jerry Jones that have their fingers in everything. And look, I and I know fans get frustrated by that, but if I spent hund, you know, when he bought it, hundreds of millions or these days many billion dollars to own a team, I'd probably want to tinker too or be in the middle and and and have my say. But you know, Tom Brady's — and by the way along those lines, I want to say Mark Cuban in the NBA just realized the NBA was moving in the hospitality direction. And he very I I don't experience Mark Cuban as being humble in the media very often, but he had a humble position to take was like, hey, it's going in a place I don't have expertise. So I went and found somebody who did and decided to sell a portion of the team. And I again I I just think it's interesting that he's recognizing the change in what sports mean to society. And so now you've got people as you said they're investing billions of dollars to buy. And Brady just did this too. He just he just invested for a minority position. I think it was how much was it?

[29:46] — I I don't know the amount. I I — I'll find out. You can tell us about — the business of sports. I watch sports for you know I I don't want my sports to get into business and politics and everything else. I just really want to be entertained. Um, but you know, he's a minority owner and the problem is he's not he's also the lead announcer for Fox. So, every week he's going to a game. Well, they actually changed the rules. A normal announcer when they go to the game they come in I don't know how many days early but days early and they will go spend a day at practice and the night before they are at the team hotels with both teams and they're in meetings and they're getting information like proprietary information from coaches like hey when we see this look we're going to call this play and things they need to do or know to be better prepared for the game and Tom Brady does not have that access like because he is an owner, he has less access than any other announcer and because they don't want him sharing that with the Raiders.

[30:55] Well, he still is at the games. I by the way think this controversy is a lot of a do about nothing because he does not have special access like other announcers. But last week, the Raiders played, I think it was a Monday night game, and he he was shown sitting in the coach's booth and on a headset and supposedly communicating with, "Hey, here's what I see." Like acting as a coach. So, he's an owner. He broadcasted a game on Sunday, flew to Vegas on Monday or I think the game was in Vegas and sat in the owner's booth and gave feedback. Well, there's no rule any owner can't do that. Um, Jim Ers's daughter runs the Colts. She has a headset that is listening to the play calls and doing everything. And she's not the only owner that has or he's not the only owner that has an impact. It's just people, they're not worried about Jim Ers's daughter being able to, you know, impact the game. And I think there's a big misunderstanding by most people. I understand being concerned like, hey, let's not give the Raiders, Tom Brady a special advantage, — but I don't think he does because him announcing a game, how is that different than anybody else watching the game or watching film or the all 22 of a game, right? the article. I only read one article about this conflict thing and it talked about the fact that a lot of times in the pre-production meetings or production meetings they go through and they talk about like some of the coaches and players can be pretty candid about their team's weaknesses where they are in terms of the injury report and you know a concern they might have like on third and long about their playbook or whatever. Um, and they might be, you know, they might share more of that information where that could actually be information that never comes off on the air, but is actually important and you and could be utilized to exploit if it got back into another locker room.

[32:48] — Correct. And Tom Brady doesn't have access to that. That's my point. Right. He is not in he is not allowed to go to those meetings. So, — if there's anything, he's actually working with one arm tied behind his back as a broadcaster. He has a disadvantage to every other broadcaster in the league. Now, maybe by association and being there and he's with his partner. Who knows? He has I mean I I I understand the concern. I just if what I understand he doesn't have special access that everybody else has. — Got it. Well, and this is a great example like we talk about conflicts of interest in my work, you know, when I'm sit on boards and things like that and conflicts of like if there's a conflict of interest, it can be navigated around, right, where people have to be excused from certain, you know, conversations, votes. And it sounds like that's happening today. And um, you know, I I'd be really interested if we do like a, you know, a survey with all the owners in the NFL to see how they felt about things or all the GMs or head coaches if they were really concerned about it. I would say that based on my raiders results, um I can't imagine too many people are real concerned about it right now, which I wish I wish it was a bigger concern. And by the way, it looks like Brady paid uh he and a partner paid in about $245 million to get a 10% stake. Looks like Brady paid about 120 million for 5%.

[34:11] — Imagine when he gets more. I'm sure I'm sure he's going to keep buying more and more. I I would I would be surprised if he doesn't keep increasing his his stake at some point. Uh, you know, I also know he's been working with the team. Like, he's been communicating with the coaches and, you know, helping quarterbacks and — there's no rule that keeps other owners from doing that. I think the concern is that just other owners don't have they don't have his knowledge. I think Pton Manning owns part of the Broncos. I think it's a much smaller portion, but I'm sure Pton Manning helps the Broncos. John Elway, by the way, was the general manager of the Broncos for years and part owner. Probably is still part owner and he definitely was working with the team and, you know, picking players. He just the the conflict is the announce potentially the announcers booth. — But doesn't Payton's an announcer on ESPN from Monday Night Football, too? — Oh, great point. In fact, my favorite announcing crew is him and Eli, the Manning cast. Yes. Um, that is true. I never thought about that. I don't know why. And I maybe he's not an owner of the Broncos, but I think — he says yeah, my friend my friend Gemini says he does not own part of the Denver Broncos today.

[35:20] — Okay. Well, I'm wrong about that then. — Or Gemini is, but more likely it's me. — Well, who knows? But uh in 20 in 2024, he clarified he's not actively pursuing an ownership or executive role with an NFL team today. — Well, John, let's talk more about the conflict of interest. Like you you've got things in your life and you're on you're on various boards. you're in various companies, you're — You know, like like how do you navigate that if somebody's listening? I mean, what what are the things they should be thinking about and be aware of? — I think the most important thing is to is to make sure that all of the like when you have a conflict of interest to disclose it and make sure that there's transparency and that you have good policies in place around how the how the organization is going to navigate conflicts of interest. And so it I mean there can be anything from you know organizations have a right to refuse to do business with someone who's conflicted to hey we're going to navigate it and here's the way we're going to navigate it. Um I've seen it not for me personally but where a vendor uh disclosed all of their kind of gross margin uh percentages based on a conflict of interest with the nonprofit board. So, I think the most important thing is being transparent with people where there are conflicts of interest and then um letting people decide how they want to navigate those conflicts of — Well, and I know look, I know this is something you're really aware of. I mean, I I I can tell from personal experience. We've had things I don't think I'll get into a specific example, but we've had cases where you have a part ownership of of my company and we're working with other companies that you have an interest in and you just simply have said, "Hey, just so you know, I have an interest in this. I have an interest here." you tell both parties and you know I mean there I mean there could be a time where you excuse yourself and then there's also times where you're just like hey — you guys need to know that I have a conflict of interest here right I have you know I got skin in both games — yep that's right and I think it gives everyone the chance to say like if they don't want me to be part of that conversation like that's fair — right that's acceptable so um yeah and you can you know I think I think I try to I try not to set up situ situations like that. But in the case you're talking about, it was like there was two people I was working with. It was be mutually beneficial to both sides. And so I didn't want to not put people together. That doesn't make sense. So — So it just, you know, like I think the biggest thing for me take just be aware of it, right?

[37:46] — Yeah. You know, I I do some consulting mostly with like some private equity things where they ask me questions and interview me and every time I do it, I have to fill out all this compliance stuff which, you know, they're very very sensitive to, but not most businesses aren't going to go to that extent and, you know, I have to take tests and and there's a whole bunch of crap, but usually it's just I think being aware of it and you know, the regular business world doesn't go that when what was your experience on the receiving side of you know me saying hey Randy I'm conflicted here. Look, I I appreciate it, right? It makes me aware you know, I have to think, okay, which what are John's incentives, right? I know you well enough to know. So, if I didn't know you as well, I would think which one's more financially beneficial for John. Which one gets him where he wants to go? What are his incentives? What's this? What's that? And how does that play out? Now, I know you so well that that's not what you're thinking.

[38:51] Okay. But somebody that you know if I — That's right. — So So it's that. — That's right. — That's right. — And now imagine what would happen if I hadn't disclosed those things and you found out later. How how would you imagine that would have felt? — Yeah. That would that would suck. — It feels pretty pretty gross. — all right. — Yeah. Yeah. — Do we want to move to birth rates? — Man, we talked about this a little bit last time, didn't we? — I don't know if we have, but let's start. Why don't you — didn't maybe we did I had to go back and listen but I think we talked about like the fact at least in a meeting we were in we talked about how college universities may see lower applications for the first time next year as a result of lowered birth rates in the US. So there's there's an industry higher ed that has to start preparing for this and you know we've got an economy that's been based on you know um GDP right? So gross domestic product is like what's the total output? if you have less people producing right um not to say GDP is going to go down definitely because you could produce more per capita but it does become harder because it's not just about the production it's also about the consumption right and so if you've got a global birth rate that's declining I think the global birth rate we looked at before this show has gone below the replacement rate so replacement rate is 2.4 for — here. I've got a I've got another — thing I can show. Um — here's a chart that I pulled up.

[40:19] — and the at the end of the chart, what you're going to see is that the replacement rate right now is 2.2. I'm sorry, the um the birth rate is 2.2. The fertil I think it's called the fertility rate and and the replacement rate is 2.4, right? — So we're we're actually that shows population decline globally. — Yeah. I mean, if you look at this, you know, this chart starts in 1960 at 4.7. It got to a high in 1963 of 5.3, I'm I'm assuming is that the baby boomer generation, right? And if you look at it, I mean, this thing has, you know, there's a little but it's it's not that far from a straight line from five, what did I just say? 5.3 in 1963 to 2.2 two in 2023. So, it's safe to say that in 2025 it's at this rate, you know, it's probably 2.1 or 2.0. — And when did you say that high point was? What what what year was that high point? 63.

[41:23] was 5. — That's like the end of the That's the end of the baby boom. So, baby boomers according to my friend Gemini ended most generally accepted 1964 was the last — Okay. So, yeah. So, you know, we were in that five range during the baby boomers to 2.2 — or 2.1 pro. Again, this thing stops a couple years ago and going down. It's not getting better. It's getting worse. — I mean, this is a problem. I mean, you you talked about the economic problem of GDP, but how that plays out. I mean, GDP is kind of an irrelevant number. What what's not is tax revenue, and what's not is $37 trillion that we have in debt. If we have 37 trillion in debt and GDP drops, tax revenue drops too. And when tax it just becomes harder to pay back that debt, right? So, — so let's just play just play that out. So, if I have if I have 37 trillion in debt in my what's revenue right now for the government roughly, just round — Um revenue is about 5 trillion. — Yeah. So, if it goes down to four trillion, that's $500 million less to pay the debt with and it just gets harder and harder over time. Well, and at current rates, we're adding about a trillion dollars of debt every 100 days or three trillion. The budget is we're the budget is two trillion, but actual spending is about three trillion more.

[42:43] So now instead of three trillion, it becomes three and a half trillion. And now we have to pay interest on it. — And again, I'm hoping robotics, more electricity, more abundance — increases that and can solve our problems. But I — increases tax revenue. Yeah, just a costs. It would, you know, what if the government used AI to cut costs significantly, right? And now we balance the budget. — Yeah. Unfortunately, it's like I I can't remember the numbers from earlier this year, but it was like the discretionary spend was like 27th of the budget or something pretty small. So even if you if even if you got rid of the entire discretionary part of the budget, you're still barely able to have a balanced budget. And so and and because there's there's so many entitlements, social security, Medicare, Medicaid, like that's the that's the challenge we bump into. And so one of the things that would happen with a lowering birth rate is is those people metriculate through to Medicare. um you would have less less entitlements, but you're talking about 40 years from now, right?

[43:54] — Yeah. I mean, I again I have a lot of hopes for AI, robotics, 3D printing, you name it, right? All of the things happening with medical technology. Uh you know, I know there's there's really smart people that think we're going to wipe out all disease in 20 or 50 years. I have no idea if they're right, but if we do, that saves money in healthcare. And you know there there's a lot of ways this can go really well but a declining population is not good financially for you know for that ratio right that debt to GDP um you know showing here I'm going to go back to to share this screen again on the same uh on the same screen if we look at it's interesting by country if I just you know scroll down from where we uh you know and this is from the World Bank but look at Afghanistan well there's been a war go you know similar to the baby boomers had a lot to do with World War II that 4.8 8 I think they're trying to get back but look at Albania 1.3 and Pandora I don't even know where and Pandora is 1.1 Angola again I think war Antigua Argentina a lot of these places Argentina is interesting they've had really bad financial and hyperinflation you know I think a lot of that's people don't want to bring kids into that world — well or or they feel like maybe maybe they feel like they couldn't afford to — yeah um wow what was that one British Virgin Islands one, although that's probably a little bit older population.

[45:32] Uh, you know, China one and that's that's a real demographic problem for China because the other thing that happens is you're going to have more old people, more people on social security, more people on, you know, in America it's Medicare. I'm sure they have different things, but you know, if you're at one, you're way below the replacement rate. I know they had the one child policy for a long time and I think I don't know if they still do or not but look at these countries — just the number of countries below two that it's really amazing like I wonder how many like let's keep scrolling for a second like how many countries in the first world are above 2.4 four and the answer looks pretty small. — Yeah, I mean Ethiopia is at four. I mean I was looking at this before the call. I noticed a lot of the countries that are have higher is where there's a lot of killing and death and you know like it's it's not a safe place to live which I think there's something in human beings. Look at Japan 1.2 they've got one of the you know that they're — Italy Italy is the same 1.2 Italy. Yeah.

[46:40] Wow. I mean, again, that's you're going to have more old. There's fewer. Oh my god. Look at Korea. 7. Like, there's going to be no kids to work to produce things for old people. I mean, that that's the real — danger here, right? I mean, back to our first topic today of robots. I mean, is this a place where robots can pick up the slack? Is there you know again Liberia that's it's places I think Liberia's had revolutions which was6 oh Macau China6 um anyway it's — Mali look at Mali 5.6 something's going right in Mali — wow well or I don't know anything about Mali I mean I for all I know — I don't either — Mosmbique 4.8 8 6.1 in Niger. I'm almost positive they're, you know, have their own wars and problems. Um, Poland, — Puerto Rico.9. — What's that? — Puerto Rico. Look at Puerto Rico. 0.9.

[47:44] — Wow. Yeah. Poland 1.2. You know, San Marino, wherever that is. 1.1. Singapore. A lot of Asia really low. 1.0. Anyway, people probably don't want to go through this whole list or they can on their own. Spain 1.1. Really low. I'm just going to go down to United States. Okay. Yeah. So, United States 1.6. But this is a, you know, I mean, what do people do about this, John? So, back to your I'm going to turn your question back on you. What, you know, what is what does this mean for the world? If somebody's listening, — I think I think a lot of people would say have more kids. I think there are probably some people that think that a lowered global population is better for the globe. I don't you know for for me I I think there's I I try to look at this from a number of perspectives like I always kind of put it through the five Fs right so the financial I think is the easiest one to measure because we can see what's going to happen to the economy and it means we have to at the very least rethink our expectations about what that's going to mean for the economy and how we're going to navigate the upcoming turns. there are going to be some turns in the economy as a result of this. And so I think if we don't navigate those turns deliberately, uh it's going to be more painful just like driving in the car, right? If if you if you don't take the turn in the road, it's a lot more bumpy road than if you stay on the road. So I think that's the easy financial piece of it. I think from a family piece of it, um you know, it it saddens me a little bit that uh there's a lot of people not having kids. And so um yeah, I don't know. I I think there's lots of different circumstances and situations so I can see there being a lot of perspectives on that. Um it it did seem to me and again just looking at the the more expensive countries to live in I wonder if people are worried about the expense of bringing a child into the world um as as a real thing. I just I have to wonder what that looks like. I think I recall reading somewhere that there were some places that had financial incentives for having children. I don't recall where they were, but um I think that's an interesting data point for sure.

[49:51] Um yeah, I mean it it's yeah, I mean humanity survival, right? I mean now on the other hand again I'm more bullish than you are on this I think but or just time frame wise at least but the if life expectancy increases you know people start living to be 150 200 years old or more maybe this becomes maybe that solves the problem maybe I don't know — well I think it it may solve one part of it at the least it would solve the consumption problem right I'm just thinking about this like because that that that group would be consuming for longer, but you still may have the productivity problem, which to your point, maybe some of the robots offset some of that potentially. And so, um, that's a that's a possible outcome. I hadn't thought about it in those terms, but that's a possible outcome. — It's an interesting world we live in. It's it's just it's really it is pretty exciting to be alive today. Like things are moving. While I do feel that we're in the fourth turning, which is a whole another, you know, thing. and things are we're kind of going through the hard times make strong men period and then you know strong men make good times, good times make weak men, weak men make hard times. I I really feel like we're in that weak men have made hard times and hard times are making strong men. I think I don't know how long this lasts or this transition, but I I really am optimistic that we're moving toward a world of abundance and more for everybody, but that's we have some work to do. It's all it's but it's exciting to be here during it.

[51:28] — You know, the one thing I say to my family and and people I work with too and you've heard me say this to you is like it's like what does it mean for me because I think you know when people look at the world around them if they're ever kind of dejected about it there generally there's some things you can do in your own world to make your world a little bit better. And I I get that that might not be true for everybody, but I would say that most people that I talk to, there are some things they can do to improve their own circumstances despite there being a difficult environment, right? And and I'm not in any way disputing the difficulty of the environment. I'm just saying that I recognize there's things I can control, things I can't control. That's it's a different level of difficulty for everybody. And um you know, so but what what are the things that we can control to make our life a little bit better? Like that's I think it's an important set of questions at least for the people that I interact with day-to-day. — All right. Um that's our topic. I mean anything else you want to put a bow on or anything you want to make a fine point on John? — You know I think for me this just really reinforces a topic you and I get back to off the air a lot which is curiosity. I think that I feel like for for me curiosity serves me super well. I think curios your curiosity has suited me well in the sense that it stretches me to think about things differently and uh I you know I'd say a lot of times we see things the same way a lot of times we don't see things the same way what I really appreciate is new perspectives and and letting my curiosity um you know really kind of uh take a deeper look at things when you bring a new perspective I appreciate that and you know my hope is that I have better formed opinions as a result of the conversation and maybe that our listeners can you know maybe they find new perspectives on abundance or new places to find more abundance in their lives. I think there's a lot of opportunity. It, you know, for me it starts with gratitude.

[53:13] — Love it. Let's end on that. I can't top that. Listeners, thank you as always. Download, subscribe. Uh tell us how you like the new format. You can follow us on social media wherever you use social media and give us feedback on what you think. Uh but as always uh I hope life is wonderful and finding abundance in your own way and contributing to abundance in the world. So thanks John. It's been great. — Yep. Thanks for listening everybody. — Listen and subscribe to the podcast wherever you get your podcasts. Click follow for more content like this or go to talesofabundance.com to join our community and get free tools.